Regional Environmental Change, Volume 14, Issue 2, pp 563-578. 2014. EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research.ĭ.Therefore, observed and projected precipitation changes should always be considered in the context of interannual variability and the measurement or modelling uncertainty. Difficulties for detecting a significant trend can arise from the small sampling area of rain gauges, calibration errors in instrumentation, erroneous measurements during weather conditions such as snow or gales, and from limited sampling of the spatial variability of precipitation, such as in mountainous areas. However, despite longevity of the precipitation record in certain areas, the high spatial and temporal variability of precipitation means that the climate change signal cannot be detected with certainty in all European regions.

Daily precipitation totals are standard meteorological measures that have been recorded systematically since the 1860s. Precipitations play a vital role in all human-environment systems and sectors, including agriculture, water supply, energy production, tourism and natural ecosystems. Rationale Justification for indicator selection The range of projected changes in precipitation from the multi-model ensemble are generally the same between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, or larger in RCP8.5, especially at the end of the century. For a medium emissions scenario (RCP4.5), the magnitude of change is smaller, but the pattern is very similar to the pattern for the RCP8.5 scenario.

A zone with small changes that are not significant (but are, however, partially robust in the direction of the change), shows where the precipitation pattern (as presented in the ensemble mean) changes the direction of the change. įor a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the models (ensemble mean) project a statistically significant increase in annual precipitation in large parts of central and northern Europe (of up to about 30 %) and a decrease in southern Europe (of up to 40 %) from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100 (Figure 2 left panel) in summer, the precipitation decrease extends northwards (Figure 2 right panel). It is not clear if the relatively minor land-use changes in Europe since the 1950s have influenced observed precipitation trends. Ĭhanges in large-scale circulation patterns (synoptic atmospheric circulation) play a key role in the observed changes in precipitation. Mean summer (June to August) precipitation has significantly decreased by up to 20 mm per decade in most of southern Europe, while significant increases (up to 18 mm per decade) have been recorded in parts of northern Europe (Figure 1, right panel). In contrast, annual precipitation has decreased by up to 90 mm per decade in the Iberian Peninsula, in particular in central Portugal. Winter precipitation (December to February) tends to decrease in limited areas in southern Europe, and significant increases (up to 70 mm per decade) have been recorded in most of northern Europe. The majority of Scandinavia and the Baltic states have observed an increase in annual precipitation of greater than 17 mm per decade, which is as high as 70 mm per decade in western Norway (Figure 1, left panel).

Most precipitation studies show a tendency towards wetter conditions in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the 20th century, but the changes are less spatially coherent than temperature change. However, significant changes have been observed at sub-continental scales. According to the E-OBS dataset, average annual precipitation across Europe shows no significant changes since 1960.

Seasonal precipitation totals